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Real Madrid huge favourites for Spanish cup despite problems

Posted on May 16, 2013 by admin

There seems to be all sorts of things going on at Real Madrid at the minute, with different rumours every day about Mourinho, the players and who will go, who will stay and who could be coming to join them. Despite this and the selection problems caused by injury and disagreements between coach and players, Real Madrid are still seen as nailed on favourites to win the Copa Del Rey final on Friday night.

Their opponents and city rivals Atletico Madrid have sealed third place in La Liga, which means they will be in the group stages of the Champions League next season. Despite their excellent form this season, they are around 5/1 to win the Spanish cup, while Real are at around 1/2 on in the betting at Unibet.

With the attacking talent on offer in both sides, the bookies expect goals, as the odds of three or more goals in the game is 1/2, while under three is at 6/4. Not surprisingly, as he has scored 54 goals in 54 games this season, Cristiano Ronaldo is favourite to score, at 9/4 to score first and 4/9 to score at anytime. He has, incidentally, got a very uniform scoring rate this season, with six goals from six games in this competition so far, 34 from 34 in La Liga, 12 from 12 in the Champions League and two from two in the Spanish supercup. That must be the unique and if he finishes the season that way it will be bizarre. I wonder what the odds are against that?

Radamel Falcao is no slouch either. His figures of 33 goals from 38 games this season would look fantastic next to almost any other player and so his odds of 11/2 to score first and 5/4 to score at anytime represent decent value. As we do not know whether Mourinho will pick Higuain or Benzema to play up front, their odds of 4/1 each to score first are not so good. With Varane injured and Pepe and Casillas seemingly having irreconcilable differences with the coach, the chances of Atletico scoring are good and it is usually Falcao that does the business.

Away from the final, most of the speculation surrounds Jose Mourinho. The bookies seem almost certain that he will leave Madrid this summer and join Chelsea, as he is 1/12 ON to be in charge at Stamford Bridge at the start of the season. They also have Carlo Ancelotti as the clear favourite to take over, with odds of 2/5 on that he will be the next man in charge at the Bernabeu. PSG are trying to resist and have apparently said they will let him go if Madrid agree to sell Ronaldo. You don’t need me to tell you how unlikely that is.

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